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Author: Subject: Fantasy Football: Last-minute start/sit for Week 4 Somehow it’s already Week 4

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posted on 11-7-2018 at 07:11 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Fantasy Football: Last-minute start/sit for Week 4 Somehow it’s already Week 4

in the NFL (weird) and byes have already started (weirder). For fantasy players that starts to shorten the pool of available players and can sometimes put a little more pressure on start/sit decisions. Well , luckily we’re here to help ... hopefully. Running backStart: Chris Carson, Seattle SeahawksSeattle took a running back in the first round, yet the Seahawks have not let that stop Chris Carson from reigning as the No. 1 back. Carson has outcarried Rashaad Penny 45-20 and outsnapped him 49.5 percent to 28.7 percent on the season. That was a 32-3 and 74 percent to 14 percent advantage last week against the Cowboys. The Seahawks want to run the ball and they’re playing the Cardinals, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.Start: Phillip Lindsay, Denver BroncosRoyce Freeman has a 36-33 rushing attempt over Lindsay this season, but that’s partly because Lindsay was ejected after just four rushing attempts this past week for throwing a punch. Still, Freeman only got 13 carries on the day. Lindsay has been the Broncos’ top back and per Next Gen Stats, he’s been the most “efficient” runner in the league with just 2.73 yards run per positive yard gained. The Broncos might find themselves in a shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs — Devontae Booker is the team’s top receiving back — but the Chiefs are also giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.Sit: Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay BuccaneersBarber is Tampa Bay’s top back, but his production hasn’t really supported that role. He has just 124 yards on 43 carries and has only four targets and one reception for seven yards in the passing game. Barber and the Buccaneers are playing the Chicago Bears who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and have faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts through three weeks.Sit: Dion Lewis, Tennessee TitansThis year was supposed to be different. The Titans were going to run an NFL offense and the signing of Dion Lewis was a key. But Marcus Mariota has been hurt and the offense really hasn’t taken off. Lewis hasn’t had more than five receptions in a game this season and that came in Week 1 and he only has 193 yards from scrimmage. Now Tennessee will face the Eagles, who are second in DVOA against the run, 10th against running backs in the passing game, and have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs so far. Wide receiverStart: Mike Williams, Los Angeles ChargersMike Williams is finding his place in the Chargers offense. He’s the No. 2 wide receiver — third in targets behind Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon. Allen has yet to practice this week Rhett Ellison Jersey , which could even increase Williams’s role. The San Francisco 49ers are likely to be without Richard Sherman and have struggled to find a second corner to play across from him. The Chargers haven’t gotten the attention of the Chiefs, Buccaneers, or Rams, but through three weeks they lead the league in percentage of offensive plays that have gained 20 or more yards. Williams has a team-leading 17.2 yards per reception.Start: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati BengalsBoyd has unquestionably taken over as the Bengals’ No. 2 receiver. He’s second in targets, receptions, and touchdowns — all behind A.J. Green. He also has six receptions and a touchdown in each of the past two games. Cincinnati has been the seventh-most pass-heavy team this season and will be facing a Falcons defense that has struggled to stop the pass. Atlanta is 23rd against opposing No. 2 receivers. Sit: Amari Cooper, Oakland RaidersIn three games, Cooper has seen three, 10, and five targets. He’s had one, 10, and two receptions. He’s being out-targeted by Jared Cook and has the same number of targets as Jalen Richard. That production probably isn’t going to get much better against a Browns teams that has shut down opposing wide receivers. Cleveland is no worse than eighth in DVOA defending against all positions in the passing game except for running back, where the Browns are 31st. Sit: Corey Davis, Tennessee TitansEverything about Corey Davis screams production Cheap Landon Collins Jersey , except for the actual production. He has a 30 percent target share (ninth-highest in the league), has gotten half of Tennessee red zone targets, and has the third-highest rate of his team’s air yards. But all of that has led to 13 receptions, 151 yards, and no touchdowns. A productive game should be coming eventually, but if you have better options, you might be better off waiting for it with him on your bench.Tight endStart: Trey Burton, Chicago BearsYou probably had higher hopes if you drafted Trey Burton. He’s been around TE16 for the season, which is streamable territory. But this week could be the week Burton and the Bears offense gets on track. Chicago is playing Tampa Bay, a team with linebackers who struggle in coverage. The Buccaneers are 25th in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. This, hopefully, is the Burton week you’ve been waiting for.Sit: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ersThis pains me because I’m a big fan of George Kittle’s game, but everything is working against him this week. He has C.J. Beathard at quarterback and will face a Chargers defense that is second in DVOA against tight ends and has allowed an average of 29 yards to tight ends and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.Giants vs. Saints: Can the Giants defense contain the Saints offense? For as long as Drew Brees and Sean Payton have been in New Orleans, the Saints have been an offensive force. That’s never been in question and it won’t be this season. New Orleans is seventh in yards per drive and seventh in points per drive. This will easily be the Giants’ toughest matchup on defense through four weeks. Let’s take a look at what to watch for on that side of the ball:By the numbersFor more information on what these numbers mean Cheap B.J. Hill Jersey , go here, and play with some of them yourself here.Pick your poisonMichael Thomas or Alvin Kamara. Pick which one you want to stop as a defense and you’ve chosen poorly because the other will kill you anyway. Thomas has turned into one of the league’s best wide receivers. He leads the league in receptions (38) and receiving yards (398) while catching 95 percent of his targets. NINETY-FIVE.Thomas isn’t a deep threat, but he can win in any intermediate area and still has the ability to work his way open behind defenders. Janoris Jenkins had to cover DeAndre Hopkins last week, but Thomas might be his toughest test of the season. Jenkins has struggled as the No. 1 cornerback this season — he’s 52nd among 65 qualified cornerbacks in yards allowed per pass and 43rd in success rate, per Football Outsiders. The Giants are also 27th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers.Then there’s Kamara, who is as much — or bigger — a threat as a receiver as he is from the backfield. Kamara third in the league in receptions and leads the league in yards from scrimmage (430). There’s no place on the field where Kamara isn’t a threat to make a big play. He can break a run play on any handoff, he can win from the slot, and as an outside receiver.What really makes this duo dangerous is when they’re lined up beside each other in the passing game. The Saints have done a great job creating route concepts that use Kamara and Thomas on the same side of the field in empty sets. This puts a possibly unrivaled amount of stress on a defense when trying to figure out how to defend it.Even when they’re not used together, the Saints know how to find a mismatch. When the Saints played the Los Angeles Rams last season, they picked on Alec Ogletree and that didn’t turn out too well for the current Giants linebacker.Under pressure?One of the concerns about the Giants defense was how much pressure they could create without — and even with — Olivier Vernon on the field. The pass rush was non-existent against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it got a little better against the Dallas Cowboys, and the Giants were in the backfield so often against the Houston Texans they might have been asked to pitch in for rent. All things combined, the Giants are fourth in defensive pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions.It hasn’t just been one player stepping up to fill the void — it’s been everyone. Kareem Martin is tied for eighth among defenders in pass pressures, per SIS Cheap Dalvin Tomlinson Jersey , and he took over the game against Houston with four quarterback hits. Connor Barwin is tied for 11th. Kerry Wynn is tied for 18th. There’s been pressure coming from all over.However, the Saints have been one of the best teams at preventing pressure this season. New Orleans ranks 10th in pressure rate allowed and Drew Brees has the fifth-lowest sack rate among quarterbacks. Brees also has the third-quickest average time to throw among quarterbacks this season. It’s hard to pressure Brees and that’s by design. When he pressured, though, Brees is one of the best at handling it. Set aside for a second that quarterback rating is bad and splitting it into smaller samples is worse — Brees has been one of the best quarterbacks this season against the blitz — something the Giants do quite a bit of.Secondary weapons against the secondaryThomas and Kamara are good — but so are the receiving options behind the, Ted Ginn has been rejuvenated in a role that allows him to get the ball on screens, create after the catch, and also still get open down the field. Cam Meredith is a good receiver at full health — he only has one target this season, but that went for a touchdown. Tre’Quan Smith has the ability to be the deep threat in the offense as his role grows. There’s also Ben Watson, the 38-year-old tight end who is fourth on the team in targets and has nearly identical numbers to Ginn through three games.Watson can still beat linebackers down the field and with Brees throwing the ball, it doesn’t really matter if he’s all the way open.With Eli Apple out again, those secondary receivers will be seeing a lot of B.W. Webb and Donte Deayon. Ask Will Fuller if he’d take those matchups again. The Giants are 13th in DVOA against opposing No. 2 receivers (that was second in the first two games with Apple) and 29th against “other” receivers with spans No. 3s to the end of the roster.Play-action and read-option remain problemsThe Giants have not handling the zone read well this season and that’s not going to be a problem against Drew Brees, though it might when Taysom Hill takes over. The Saints showed against the Falcons they weren’t hesitant to put their backup quarterback/special teams contributor in at quarterback to run some option plays on third downs and in the red zone. Hill had three carries against Atlanta for 39 yards. He Had a two-yard gain on third-and-2 from the Atlanta 10-yard line. A two-yard gain on a second-and-10 and a 35-yard run on a third-and-2 from the New Orleans 45.Don’t be surprised if the Saints whip this out against a defense that showed in the first two games how they struggled against the read option — it would have been three games if Houston coaches had any rational game planning.However, the deception the Giants should really be concerned about is play-action. The Saints don’t run a lot of it (28th in play-action rate), because they don’t always need to because of how good the passing offense already is — their 7.9 yards per attempt on non-play-action passes ranks seventh. But even though the Saints are just average by play-action yards per play (15th) their 8.2 yards per play is still higher than their total without it. That’s a concern for a Giants team that has seen the seventh-highest rate of play-action run against them (28 percent) and has allowed the seventh-highest yards per play (10.0) on play-action passes.
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